π‘ Strategi Data-Driven dari Historical (update 25/26 valid)
- PPM King tiap musim (own<10, pos valid, costβ₯3.5m): 25/26 Truffert 34.4 (DEF 4.8m), 24/25 Semenyo 28.9 (MID 5.7m), 23/24 Mateta 32.4 (FWD 5.1m), 22/23 Xhaka 31.9 (MID 4.8m), 21/22 Alisson 28.9 (GK 6.1m), 20/21 Meslier 32.1 (GK 4.8m), 19/20 PatrΓcio 28.9, 18/19 Foster 28.0, 17/18 Ryan 31.7 β sweet spot 4.6-5.7m tetap, tapi 25/26 DEF value naik (Truffert, Mukiele)
- Posisi paling differential: MID set-piece takers masih raja β 7/15 top differential 23/24 & 25/26 MID (Gibbs-White 188pts 9.2%, Elliot Anderson 180pts 9.4% di 25/26). Jangan overload FWD template.
- Bek differential: Wing-back mid-table bonus magnet > clean sheet Big6. Contoh terbaru: Truffert 165pts 5.3% 34.4 PPM (25/26), White 14 bonus 23/24, Burn/Mitchell. Target DEF dengan
ict_index >120 + bonus β₯7.
- Gagalnya template: Palmer GW1 23/24 2% β 244pts & Gibbs-White 25/26 9.2% β 188pts. Kalau filter pakai
selected_by_percent akhir musim (>50%) lu bakal miss. Validasi selalu cek data/2025-26/By Gameweek/GW1/players.csv via olbauday/FPL-Core-Insights.
- FDR Hack 26/27 (live): Hunter sekarang target FDR <3.0 next 5 GW. GW1 26/27: Leeds 2.8 & Brentford 3.0 paling ringan (sama seperti 25/26) β ideal untuk differential awal. Cek tab Hunter β sort FDR β.
- Early season (GW1-3): Validated 25/26: xGI/90 >0.5 + form >6.0 > total_points. Elliot Anderson GW4-8 xGI90 0.52 langsung meledak ke 180pts. Jangan kejar poin GW1 doang.
- Ownership trap: Dataset 24/25 ada artefak manager (Moyes PPM 274, cost 0.5m) β filter
pos != '' AND cost β₯3.5m di dashboard Historical biar value valid. Udah gw filter di leaderboard.
File yang lu punya sekarang:
fpl-data-driven/
βββ data/
β βββ historical_merged.csv (6675 rows, 2017-2026 inc. 25/26)
β βββ historical_differentials.csv (663 rows, own<10 & pts>=100)
β βββ historical.json + summary_top100.json
β βββ top100_all_seasons.csv (900 rows) + top100_20xx-xx.csv
β βββ hunter_2026_27.csv / hunter_2025_26.csv (live 26/27)
β βββ hunter_2026_27_full.json
βββ fetch_historical.py (SEASONS inc. 2025-26)
βββ hunter_2026_27.py (live bootstrap 26/27 + FDR)
βββ index.html (dashboard)
Cara update data:
python fetch_historical.py # update historical (auto inc. 25/26)
python hunter_2026_27.py # update live 26/27 tiap GW (ownership & xG berubah)
# lalu refresh index.html β atau biarin GitHub Actions cron Selasa/Jumat 10 UTC update otomatis
npx wrangler pages deploy . --project-name=fpl-data-driven # deploy Cloudflare Pages